New polls out today show the Prime Minister has had a surge of support across the country over the last month, after successes in renegotiating the Northern Ireland protocol, calming inflation and announcing his new strategy to stop small boats. While Mr Sunak’s popularity is on the up, the party remains well behind Labor in polls of General Election voting intention.
According to pollster Redfield and Wilton, Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer are now just one point apart in popularity among the so-called ‘Blue Wall’, Tory-leaning southern seats.
Changes since last month show Rishi Sunak up 8 points to -2, while Sir Keir has dropped seven points to -1.
This marks the first time since becoming Labor Leader that Keir Starmer has recorded a negative approval rating in these seats.
In the Red Well – working class northern seats that flipped Tory in 2019 – Mr Sunak remains further behind, though is rapidly catching up with the Labor leader.
Red Wall voters now put the Prime Minister in net positive territory on +1, up a whopping 17 points on last month’s figure.
Keir Starmer on the other hand has fallen five points to +8.
The gap between the two in the Red Wall has closed by 29 points.
Co-founder of JL Partners James Johnson, who ran the Red Wall poll, commented that tackling illegal immigration was “always going to go down well in the Tories’ southern seats as well as in the North and the Midlands.
He said: “Contrary to much of the polarized debate on [Twitter]people in those seats [are] pretty united on wanting to see firm action.”
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Mr Johnson highlighted that Rishi Sunak’s rating of +1 in the Red Wall is not far off Boris Johnson’s peak in early 2021, and well above where the former Prime Minister was by the time he left No. 10, by which point Red Wall voters placed him at -35.
On the question of who would make a better Prime Minister, the JL Partners poll for Channel 4 sees Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer tied at 39 percent.
Through Sir Keir has a lead among voters when asked to state which candidate has the better personal attributes, Rishi Sunak’s ratings for “gets things done” have improved 8 points since February – a sign some voters appreciate his managerial style.
The poll carries bad news for Boris Johnson, who has repeatedly been rumored to want the top job back.
When Red Wall voters were asked who would make the better PM, Rishi Sunak has a 20-point lead over Boris Johnson, and beats his predecessor but one among Leave voters and 2019 Tory voters.
The Northern Ireland Windsor Framework appears to have been a catalyst for the improvement in Mr Sunak’s personal popularity and his newly-found lead over Boris Johnson, while new stories about the Commons investigation into whether Mr Johnson misled Parliament over Partygate has caused a dip in his ratings.
There is cause for celebration in Labor HQ, however. For the first time JL Partner records a lead for the party among voters on who gives them a five point lead on who would better handle the economy.
Labor is also more trusted on crime, the environment, taxation, the cost of living, stopping sleaze in politics, dealing with strikes, leveling up, housing and the NHS.
The Tories are more trusted on just Brexit, defence, foreign affairs, controlling immigration and the Covid pandemic.
James Johnson concludes that “if Labor hold their position, they win”, but adds “there are grains of optimism hidden in here for Tory MPs too.”
Liz Truss’s popularity has remained at -60 since leaving office.
