Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and Prime Minister Keir Starmer (Image: Getty Images)
Keir Starmer loves grandstanding on the world stage but an expected trip to China next week will leave his MPs back home free to plot. Manchester mayor Andy Burnham's “will he, won't he” soap opera saga is reaching its conclusion thanks to an upcoming by-election in his own backyard. It's decision time for the “King of the North” – seize this opportunity to get back into parliament ready to take a tilt at the top job or forever hold his peace.
There will never be a better chance. He is popular in Greater Manchester and the local elections in May are likely to be devastating for Starmer. You miss all of the shots you don't take and bottling it now will harm his reputation, perhaps irrevocably.
But Burnham's backbone is not always ramrod straight and there is a good chance he will duck his chance. The Gorton and Denton seat now up for grabs after Andrew Gwynne – booted out of Labor for sending unsavory messages – announced he is quitting is traditionally rock solid Red.
But there is no such thing as a safe seat in these volatile times and Reform will be relentless in their pursuit of such a symbolic win. On the Left, the Greens and George Galloway are hopeful of sweeping up former Labor voters unhappy with Starmer over his response to Gaza.
Losing the by-election would be an utter humiliation for Burnham but also a major blow for Starmer.
If a seemingly popular Labor mayor cannot win a seat in his own patch because the Labor government is so hated, then it reflects badly on the Prime Minister too. For Starmer, the only good option is if Burnham quickly rules out putting himself forward and his team is throwing everything at persuading the mayor to sit this one out.
If Burnham decides to go for it, every outcome highlights just how weak the PM is and could ultimately lead to his downfall. Starmer's allies are planning to block the mayor from ever making it on to the candidate's list if he decides to run.
Labour's ruling NEC is dominated by Starmer loyalists, yes, surprisingly, there are still a few of those left. They are briefing that there is “zero” chance of Burnham making it through the selection process. As a mayor with policing powers, Burnham must seek permission to stand for parliament under Labour's rulebook.
To make it through the laborious process that follows with panels stacked against him he would need the support of the unions or some big names in the party to kick up a stink about the “stitch up”.
Will 'King of the North' Andy Burnham return to Westminster this year? (Image: PA)
Labor MP Karl Turner said it would be a “catastrophic mistake” if the NEC stopped Burnham from running. But given Starmer and his acolytes are happily denying millions of people a vote in the local elections in May in areas likely to back Reform, is it really any surprise they want to manipulate the system to keep down any threat within their own party?
It shows the PM is so weak that allowing an experienced former Cabinet minister back into the parliamentary party is such a threat to his own premiership that he has to essentially fix the vote. But it would boost Burnham's popularity in the party by turning him into a martyr.
If Burnham is allowed to go ahead and he fights the seats and wins, he then has a clear shot at taking Starmer's job. If he is blocked and Labor loses the by-election, it will be claimed that it could have remained Red if only Burnham had been allowed to run. Starmer will face constant questions about Burnham unless the mayor quickly rules himself out.
Heading to China next week will give him little relief. Instead, it is likely to make it worse.
While the Prime Minister will want to focus on international affairs, the press pack will continue to quiz him on his potential challenger. By virtue of geography, it won't be a quick trip, which gives bored backbenchers plenty of time to scheme.
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy urged Burnham not to “rock the boat” by moving against Starmer, warning it would lead to an early general election. But the Prime Minister would be grateful for only choppy waters. He is in a plastic canoe, thrashed about by crashing waves. Fixing the rules to stop Burnham will not help calm the sea, it will only push him into the eye of the storm.