Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer has suffered a massive blow after a new opinion poll suggested Labor might actually have fallen into fourth place with voters. The new survey, by polling company Findoutnow, suggests that Labor may now be less popular than Reform, the Conservatives and the Green Party.
The survey found 32% of voters would back Reform if a general election was held today, putting Nigel Farage's party firmly in first place. It then put the Conservatives second, with 17% of the vote. This is an important result for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, because some of her nervous MPs will be delighted by the idea that they are beating Labor – even if they are still behind Reform.
But the next results are perhaps the most interesting, they show that Labor and the Green Party, which has a new leader in Zack Polanski, are both backed by 15% of voters. And when you look at the figures in more detail, the Greens are backed by 15.3% of voters – with Labor supported by 15.2%.
This won't be enough to panic Labor MPs yet. The difference between Labor and the Green Party, and even between Labor and the Conservatives, is within the “margin of error”, which is 2-3%. In other words, the polling companies always warn that they don't know for sure how people will vote, and suggest that all the results could be up to 3% out.
Also, Findoutnow uses a slightly different method of conducting surveys to most other polling companies, although of course its always possible that their method is the best one. We can't really judge that until a general election actually takes place.
Even so, it highlights a real concern for Labor – that the Green Party is winning support from left-wing voters who might otherwise back Labour, including some students, graduates and others. middle-class voters, at the same time as Reform is winning support from some more conservative-minded voters in industrial areas who also backed Labor in the past.
Sir Keir Starmer faces a huge dilemma as he attempts to fight off threats from two different directions. Some of his Labor colleagues fear he is going too far in trying to win over voters who could switch to Reform, for example by promising to crackdown on immigration, and may actually be hurting Labour's chances with more liberal-minded voters who are more supportive of immigration.
Findoutnow also produces data showing average support for the parties over the past three weeks, and this shows Labor in second place, with 17% of the vote, Tories on 16% and Greens on 14%. However, it shows support for Labor has been falling since January, while support for the Green Party is rising.