The coming weeks could shape the future of Britain for years and define Sir Keir Starmer's place in history. The Prime Minister's year is not going as planned. He staked his reputation on 2026 being a time of “turning a corner” when “people begin to feel the difference in their pockets”. When he uttered these optimistic comments, back in January, it was taken for granted that inflation would recede and interest rate cuts were on the way. Mortgage-holders looked to the future with hope, and Sir Keir was poised to take the credit.
The King's visit to the United States would be an opportunity to smooth over the crinkles in the special relationship, and as the nation enjoyed the brighter evenings and the prospect of the World Cup, there was even a chance the public would look more kindly on the Labor Government. The world has turned a corner, but in a frightening direction.
The cost of filling up a tank of heating oil has nearly doubled in the wake of Donald Trump's strikes on Iran. Labor is under mounting pressure to stage yet another U-turn and give the green light to new oil and gas extraction in the North Sea. Fighting climate change was once seen as a vote-winner but now the Conservatives and Reform UK portray Labor as the party of tax-hiking, growth-killing ideological zealots who refuse to make use of subterranean riches and stand ready to force up the price of petrol. Alas for Sir Keir, these attacks from the Right are unlikely to win him much respect from the tranche of the population who are most concerned about rising sea levels; Zack Polanski's Greens are neck and neck with Labor in polls and are now tapping into despair over the country's housing crisis.
This would be a grim situation for any PM, but on May 7, legions of citizens have the chance to cast their votes in elections which are presented by Reform as a “referendum on the Prime Minister”. Its official slogan for the local elections is: “Vote Reform, Get Starmer Out.” Parties in government are used to mid-term drubbings, but next month's contests coincide with elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Labor has run Wales since the dawn of self-government in 1999, but polls now put Sir Keir's party behind pro-independence Plaid Cymru and Reform. There is the very real prospect that every part of the United Kingdom other than England will soon have a Prime Minister from a party which wants the UK to break up.
Already-anxious Labor MPs may well feel on the verge of cracking up if the party is decimated not just in former industrial strongholds but in London. MPs who respect Sir Keir as a decent and kind man with a formidable legal brain may put an arm around his shoulder and suggest it is time to reboot the party with a new leader.
If Angela Rayner can put her stamp duty debacle behind her and present a credible vision for a Labor revival, pressure for change at the top will intensify. Ironically, renewed cost-of-living turmoil and a fresh round of international crises could strengthen Sir Keir's chances of staying in post; Cabinet members can remind panicked backbenchers that the public was disgusted by Tory plotting and staging a leadership contest during an economic and security emergency would look extremely self-indulgent.
The shelving of the Chagos Island deal is the latest humiliation for Sir Keir. The Government fears this could threaten the long-term future of the UK-US base there, but President Trump has no intention of doing his pal any favors. Britain has woken up to the fragility of its national defenses and the present nervousness could escalate into terror if this angry US President really does walk away from NATO. King Charles' upcoming visit is now a time for frantic diplomatic fence-mending.
The Prime Minister never got to enjoy a political honeymoon thanks to the withdrawal of pensioners' universal entitlement to winter fuel support and the levying of a shock increase in National Insurance contributions on employers and now his thoughts will be on his legacy. He can take comfort that biographers and historians spend little time writing about opinion polls and focus on the key decisions PM's make.
Sir Keir will take pride in refusing to join the US in attacking Iran – this is evidence of grit – but he will want to point to big achievements. Brexiteers are horrified by his push for closer alignment with the European Union. If the PM decides that his time is best spent quietly unraveling aspects of Brexit he could end up gravely disappointed. As Britain's former chief Brexit negotiator Lord Frost recently noted in these pages, the EU will not rush to negotiate a big deal if it thinks the PM will soon be replaced by someone who will tear it to shreds. Sir Keir's inability to persuade the French to stop people smuggling gangs from herding would-be migrants into dangerous dinghies demonstrates Britain's lack of clout.
These are dangerous days for the country, for Europe and the world. Sir Keir will hope he does not go down in history as Labour's last prime minister.